Probability of entrance (also probability of damage, or damage frequency) designates the statistic expectancy value and/or the estimated probability, for occurring a certain event in a certain period in the future. The probability of entrance is a term of the probability calculation and/or statistics and in per cent, and/or as a value between 0 and 1 is indicated.

• the event means 0 will never occur; impossible event
• Values in close proximity to 0; improbable event
• Values in close proximity to 1; probable event
• A value of 1 means that the event in any case will occur; safe event.

Must be differentiated between the probability for an individual case and the total probability (law of the large number).

Example: The probability that I win in Germany in the Lotto, is at 1/14 million and is very small thereby (improbable event). If however a large number of plays is played, e.g. 40 millions plays then the probability for occurring the event (= probability of entrance) rises into the proximity of 1 (probable event). It is thus very probable that "“possibly who"” wins with the next lottery.

It belongs to the psychological factors of the industrial safety that humans for itself always count on the probability of individual case, which is usually indicated only as statistic means (illusion of the own Unverletzbarkeit). By the combination of different factors (conditions danger-bringing, favouring conditions) the probability of entrance can lie substantially more highly.

Likewise the probability for the particular increases, if it is exposed more frequently to the same endangerment (similar to the number of the plays with the Lotto: It can be increased, if play more people and if play the people more frequently and/or start several plays at the same time).

In the industrial safety and regarded with the actuarial science unwanted events (damage or accidents), here speaks one also of probability of damage. The value of the probability of entrance is a part of the damage risk. A calculable risk should move between the residual risk and the threshold risk. In the industrial safety that would be the range of "“safe working"”.

For the risk evaluation e.g. with the risk matrix after Nohl the probability of entrance is indicated in categories and "“meaningfully estimated"”.

Articles in category "Probability of entrance"

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