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Mackenroth thesis or Mackenroth theorem the following statement formulated of Gerhard Mackenroth 1952 one calls:
"Now the simple and clear sentence applies that all social expenditure must be always covered from the national income of the current period. There is no other source and has never another source given, from which social expenditure could flow, it gives no accumulation from period to period, no "saving" in the private-economical sense, it gives simply nothing at all different one than the current national income than source for the social expenditure. That is not also a special or Ungunst of our time, which lives from hand to mouth, but that was always like that and can never be different."
The Mackenroth thesis could not be disproved until today, is however by no means undisputed. The basic idea that all social expenditures can be never covered in each case by current incomes, however by overall economic reserves, has however enormous practical consequences for the completion and organization of the legal social security systems, in particular for the old age pension insurance. If the thesis is correct, then it is practically impossible to develop a Kapitaldeckung in economical orders of magnitude.
This viewpoint played an important role in the discussion into the 1950er years over a large social reform in the Federal Republic of Germany. Reserves of the principal old age pension insurance existing at that time had been destroyed to a large extent by inflation and currency reform. Besides one had been able to date never to collect reserves in sufficient height. The old-age pensions were financed actually by current incomes and national subsidies. Before this background gradually a scientific discussion came on whether a Kapitaldeckung was at all possible and necessary. The question was finally generally answered in the negative. Thus Wilfrid writer, the "father of the dynamic pension" spoke of the "wrong obsession cover reserves to form to have":
"(...) The income from annuities of the old persons of a whole people can be taken actually in each case out of the current national product. In it are itself the scholars of all directions united. The particular can accumulate fortunes, in order to verzehren it at the age - the whole of the people cannot do it. " (P. 29)
Thus the Mackenroth thesis became fundamental maxim for the large pension reform from the 1957. Therefore the principal "savings pension" was changed over to the "dynamic allocation procedure". - Greater importance attained the Mackenroth theorem again in the context of the arguments around the agenda 2010 and further reform suggestions within the social range since end of the 1990er years.
Winfried (see literature) has pointed out that the thesis employs already 1939/1940 from Theodor at that time in ergonomical Institut of the DAF, was set up. Mackenroth help the thesis however to larger admittingness, why she was called already early "Mackenroth thesis "or Mackenroththeorem.
Internationally the theorem is brought with the US economist Paul A. Samuelson in connection, which it formulated mathematical.
From view of the proponents it follows from the Mackenroth thesis that the financial completion of a pension system (e.g. reallocation - or principal system) to be simply only as inexpensive as possible should, in order to ensure the maximum net yield.
The financing of a principal pension system is generally more expensive than a national allocation procedure. Typically the administratives expense lie e.g. in Germany both with the national pension system and during a private life insurance with approx. 2 to 4% of the deposits. During the life insurance are added however still costs of distribution (for example marketing, advertisement), commissions and the self-net yield (profit) of the insurance, so that the total costs are for instance with 10 to 12%. On the basis of this reason a national allocation procedure from cost reasons would be to be preferred to a principal private pension system.
The Mackenroth thesis is not denied regarding the goods cycle and on the assumption that no foreign trade surplus is present, in principle. So far she is to be found with Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill. Financialeconomically a transfer of achievements into the future is very probably possible according to opinion of some economists, if the increase of the net savings draws also an increase of the net investments in special capital (the probability that this also always occurs, is smaller estimated by John May pool of broadcasting corporations Keynes than of the proponents principal insurance).
It is correct that in principle no system can survive, if the expenditures exceed the incomes during a longer period. The Kapitaldeckung stabilizes however with demographic reversals the justice between the generations rather; above all it is less susceptible to political wrong decisions, which can fall the allocation procedure by wrong incentives for behavior (e.g. early retirement) into financial crises.
Some critics also object that in the capital covering procedure more was saved, the capital stick are thus larger than absolutely necessarily, in particular in the starting period. On the other hand empirical observations were set up, after which the rate of saving was very similar after the starting period in both systems.
Besides is, like that critic, who shortens viewpoint of the theorem; for an overall economic view it must be considered that the insured ones already make other economic decisions due to the requirements, which have them on achievements in the future in the present.
Many are the opinion that the difference between reallocation and capital covering procedures is often exaggerated. As the small economic differences is more crucial for the choice of the system, which justice term one puts at the basis. As justice it is understood that everyone believes to keep approximate, what it deposited, is the capital covering procedure to prefer.
Allocation procedures presupposes stable wage ratio, thus productivity-oriented wage policy, since it from social insurance contributions, which on the earned income, for example the gross wages and - salaries, to be raised, finances itself. The contribution load must rise ceteris paribus, if the become smaller and not become balanced by appropriate productivity increases (see in addition Konrad Adenauer's famous utterance, with it the allocation procedure against the doubts Ludwig Erhard interspersed: "Children wars the people always! ").
For the capital covering procedure however stated that it to shrinking population numbers durable reacted, once because the capital stick will also abroad be invested can, on the other hand also, because it falls a principal insurance system, in particular if it is privately organized, more easily, to secure risks equivalent no "insurance-strange achievements" to thus finance to have. Who becomes for example unemployed, also no private old age pension insurance can afford.
The proponents maintain that the Mackenroth theorem applies only in a closed national economy that however by the dismantling of restrictions of capital traffic in the course it applies for the globalization to the world economy altogether as closed national economy further. It is disputed to what extent individual countries with shrinking population can merge the foreign country by means of capital covering procedures into the financing of the own old age pension insurance.
among other things dogma-historical notes:
Overview to the discussion in the 50's:
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